Market Pulse
6/29/2026
This post reflects my current views on the market, sectors, and internal breadth/momentum. Expect candid, data-driven analysis, peppered with personal insights drawn from years of trading experience. I aim to provide value in every edition, helping you to see the market through a clearer, more informed lens.
What You Can Expect
In-Depth Market Analysis: A thorough examination of market trends, key indices, and pivotal turning points.
Sector Spotlights: A closer look at the hottest (and not-so-hot) sectors, highlighting opportunities and risks.
Breadth and Momentum Insights: Understanding the underlying strength of the market through breadth indicators and momentum metrics.
Themes and Setups: A look at the top stocks in terms of relative strength, momentum, trend, volatility, and liquidity to spot themes, setups, and opportunities
Exclusive Features
Interactive Spreadsheet: Alongside each post, I’ll link a detailed spreadsheet that tracks breadth and momentum metrics. This will allow you to follow along with the data and see the trends I’m analyzing day-by-day.
Quick Video Commentary: To complement the metrics, I’ll also be posting a quick video commentary several days a week. This will provide a more dynamic overview of the market, offering you additional context and clarity.
Market Metrics
Market Backdrop: Mixed
The divergence among the major indices continues. Large caps are hanging on by a thread near their 50-day moving averages, while mid- and small-cap indices remain above their key moving averages and continue to show solid overall price action. This divergence reflects the ongoing split tape and reinforces the importance of being in the right groups.
The sector picture is just as mixed. Technology, which had been the clear leader for several weeks, has now slipped to fourth on the relative strength list. Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate now occupy the top three spots based on one-month relative strength. This does not mean Technology is completely off the table, but it does mean the group needs to prove itself again before earning fresh capital.
Industrials and Defensives still look technically solid, but they continue to lag from a relative strength perspective. Consumer, Materials, and Energy remain clear avoids for now, as they lack both relative strength and technical strength.
Breadth remains positive overall, helped by the strength in select groups, but momentum is still lacking. This kind of mixed and sloppy tape warrants a less aggressive posture. The priority should remain selectivity, capital preservation, and focusing only on the groups showing the best combination of relative strength and clean price action..
Overall Trend: Mixed
Large Cap: Negative
Mid Cap: Positive
Small Cap: Positive
Overall NH/NL Breadth: Positive
Large Cap: Positive
Mid Cap: Positive
Small Cap: Positive
Overall Up/Down Momentum: Mixed
Large Cap: Negative
Mid Cap: Positive
Small Cap: Negative
Market Recap
TC2000 Stock list: https://www.tc2000.com/~yiUANU4
Tactical Plan of Action
1) Trend & Market Structure
The market remains split. Large caps are hanging on near their 50-day moving averages, while mid- and small-cap indices continue to hold above their key moving averages and show better overall price action. This divergence is important. The market is not broadly broken, but weakness in large caps keeps the tape fragile.
The current environment favors selectivity over broad exposure. Being in the right groups matters more than simply being long, given the mixed indices.
Tactical guidance
Stay cautious and selective.
Maintain exposure around 40–55% of normal.
Avoid broad market exposure until large caps stabilize and reclaim stronger structure.
Respect mid- and small-cap relative strength, but do not overcommit while large caps remain weak.
If large caps decisively lose the 50-day, reduce exposure quickly.
If large caps hold the 50-day and begin reclaiming the 10/20-day, gradually increase exposure.
2) Breadth & Momentum
Breadth remains positive overall, helped by strength in select groups. However, momentum remains lacking, so the tape is still not showing broad upside momentum. This is a mixed environment where some groups are working while others remain weak or sloppy.
The lack of strong momentum argues against pressing too aggressively.
Tactical guidance
Use breadth and momentum as the throttle.
If breadth stays positive and momentum improves, exposure can increase toward 55–65%.
If breadth remains positive but momentum stays weak, keep exposure closer to 40–55%.
If new lows expand or breadth deteriorates, cut exposure toward 25–40%.
Do not assume the market is healthy just because a few groups are working.
3) Sector Focus & Rotation
Leadership has shifted. Technology has slipped from clear leadership to fourth on the one-month relative strength list. Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate now occupy the top spots. Technology is not off the table, but it needs to prove itself again before earning fresh capital.
Industrials and Defensives look technically solid, but they still lag in relative strength. Consumer, Materials, and Energy remain clear avoids due to weak relative strength and poor technical structure.
Tactical guidance
Make Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate the primary focus areas.
Keep Technology on watch, but require stabilization and renewed relative strength before adding exposure.
Watch Industrials and Defensives for improvement, but do not prioritize them until relative strength confirms.
Avoid Consumer, Materials, and Energy for now.
Let relative strength lead sector allocation.
4) Stock Selection & Entries
This is not a broad breakout-buying environment. The best opportunities are likely to come from stocks in the strongest groups that are holding key moving averages, building tight patterns, or breaking out from clean bases.
Prioritize
Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate names with strong relative strength.
Stocks holding above rising 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages.
Clean pullbacks to support with volume drying up.
Tight bases or 2–5 day tight patterns.
Mid- and small-cap leaders showing strong price structure.
Technology names only if they reclaim support and show renewed relative strength.
Avoid
Weak Technology names below key moving averages.
Consumer, Materials, and Energy stocks with poor relative strength.
Loose, wide, volatile patterns.
Breakouts in lagging sectors.
Stocks making new lows while the indices remain split.
Buying simply because a name is “down enough.”
5) Trade Management & Risk Controls
The current tape warrants a conservative approach. Because leadership is rotating and large caps are fragile, new trades should be smaller and easier to exit. The goal is to protect capital while staying involved in the few groups showing real strength.
Risk controls
Use ¼ to ½ normal size on most new entries.
Use ¾ size only for the cleanest setups in top-ranked groups.
Avoid full-size positions until breadth and momentum improve.
Cut failed breakouts quickly.
Take partial profits into fast strength.
Trail stronger positions with the 10-day or 20-day moving average.
Do not average down into weak sectors.
Raise cash from names losing key support.
6) Exposure Scenarios
Base Case: Split Tape, Selective Strength
Large caps remain fragile near the 50-day, mid- and small-caps are holding up better, and leadership is concentrated in Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate.
Exposure: 40–55%
Cash: 40–55%
Posture: Cautious, selective, capital-preservation focused
Rotation Improvement Scenario
This develops if Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate continue leading while Industrials, Defensives, or Technology begin improving.
Action: Increase exposure gradually toward 55–65%.
Add only through clean setups with strong relative strength.
Large-Cap Repair Scenario
This develops if large caps hold the 50-day and reclaim the 10/20-day moving averages.
Action: Increase exposure toward 55–70%.
Focus on leaders in the strongest sectors and watch for Technology to rejoin leadership.
Continued Split Tape Scenario
This develops if mid- and small-caps hold up, but large caps remain weak and momentum stays muted.
Action: Maintain 40–55% exposure.
Trade selectively, avoid overtrading, and stay concentrated in the best groups.
Breakdown Scenario
This develops if large caps lose the 50-day, breadth weakens, and new lows expand.
Action: Reduce exposure toward 20–35%.
Raise cash, stop buying breakouts, and wait for stabilization.
Bottom Line
The market remains mixed and sloppy. Large caps are hanging on near the 50-day, while mid- and small-caps continue to show better price action. Leadership has rotated away from Technology and toward Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate. Breadth remains positive, but momentum is still lacking.
The right posture is cautious and selective. Keep exposure reduced, focus on the strongest groups, avoid weak sectors, and do not press aggressively until large caps stabilize and momentum improves.